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Marathon Digital Holdings: A Leveraged Bitcoin Game with a Valuation Framework

by Elaine Mendonça
September 17, 2021
in Tech stocks
0
Marathon Digital Holdings A Leveraged Bitcoin Game with a Valuation Framework

Source: Getty Images

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NASDAQ: MARA is closely linked to Bitcoin (BTC-USD), which means that its stock prices are more susceptible to Bitcoin price movement. The forecast is that MARA will move 1.4% in the same direction for every 1% move in Bitcoin. Mining companies are indeed using the underlying commodities as leverage. However, revenues and profits do not reflect the quantity and profitability of the mined commodities. Therefore, the valuation of mining companies should be based on the fair value of the balance sheet commodities, production/mining capacity, and base asset price.

Analysts examine the mining/production efficiencies of various publicly traded mining companies and propose an intrinsic value for MARA. In addition, they analyze MARA’s cost of production with two other well-known mining companies, Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ: RIOT) and Bitfarms (NASDAQ: BITF). Mara is a correlation bet on Bitcoin and a beta of 1.4 on Bitcoin. It bought 4,812.66 Bitcoins for $150 million in total through an investment fund managed by NYDIG. This increases their Bitcoin holdings to 5,518 Bitcoins or $193,000. By 2022, your Hashpower could mine 3,430 Bitcoins ($120,000) or 13,719.6 Bitcoins ($480,000) each quarter; To justify your assessment, a $28k Bitcoin would have to be $72.5k.

Contents hide
1 Marathon Digital Holdings: EBITDA Minus Capex Persistently Negative. 80% negative potential
2 Marathon Digital Holdings: Bitcoin mining production continues to grow amid the crash in the crypto market.

Marathon Digital Holdings: EBITDA Minus Capex Persistently Negative. 80% negative potential

Marathon Digital Holdings Stock
Source: Getty Images

The total accumulated deficit of Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) is $148.7 million. Since the beginning of 2017, its outstanding shares have increased by more than 8,000 percent. Since MARA started its price hike in April 2020, short interest rates have been rising steadily. Weakening retail enthusiasm and rising stock volume will lead to a return to the $4-7 trading range (liquid assets per share), suggesting a possible drop from 68% to -80%. Since the beginning of 2017, the Marathon Patent Group (Mara) has expanded its share count by more than 8,000%.

As of the filing date, outstanding shares increased from 1.16 million shares to 99.47 million shares. The company’s last direct offering was for $250 million in early 2021. However, investors may be more encouraged because corporations highlight measures that don’t seem to reflect the company’s performance better. Marathon Digital Holdings (Mara) is a stock issuer. CEO Merrick Okamoto received a $2,000,000 cash bonus that was paid before the end of 2020.

He was given a new three-year employment contract with the same pay and bonus as the previous deal, starting January 1, 2021. To create long-term shareholder value, the Board should better focus on its business. The Mara (Mara) share price is trading at $30.11 per share; the corporation brings in plenty of cash to fund day-to-day operations, which is made up of BTC. Net assets per share are currently at $6.87, indicating an investment reduction potential of 80% to 68%.

A stop-loss based on historical volatility (HV) can be employed as a hedging tool to allow the transaction to be executed in the intended direction. For example, shares in mining company MARA fell in early 2021, the short-term stake in Mara fluctuated by 12.61%, and is likely to remain there as market participants increasingly detect the company’s declining fundamentals. As a result, over the next 12 months, analysts would target a price range between $4 and $7 and advise to shorten the inventory.

Marathon Digital Holdings: Bitcoin mining production continues to grow amid the crash in the crypto market.

MARA Marathon Digital Stock
Source: Getty Images

The #1 Bitcoin mining company in the United States is Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA). The company has undertaken several critical efforts to improve its production and add value to shareholders. But starting in February, MARA shares fell due to a new launch in the tech sector, as well as critical comments about Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Bitcoin. Marathon Digital Holdings (Mara), following Elon Musk’s comment about Bitcoin, dropped from $30 to $23. In the coming years, analysts estimate Bitcoin’s mining capacity will increase 8-fold.

Next year, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 or more as the current bullish cycle is unfinished. The company is planning to increase production through the first quarter of 2022 from 13,644 to over 100,000. Mining Marathon Mara is the world’s largest Bitcoin mining company, with a market valuation of less than $2 billion. When Bitcoin drops to $40,000 or less, MARA can drop to $15 or less. If Bitcoin falls below $, the corporation could incur huge losses for shareholders.

Marathon Digital Stock Forecast: What the price can be through 2025

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) operates Bitcoin mining devices. With the BTC (BTC-USD) price above $55,000 and nearly doubling in just over a year, the trading strategy in the current market has become tremendously profitable. We are excited about MARA, which quickly increases productivity and generates better income possibilities. Marathon has invested more than $238 billion in mining plant orders, including a $170 million acquisition of ‘Bitmain Technologies Inc.’ The company estimates an average BTC production cost of $4,541 per BTC, which generates a gross margin of more than 90 percent in the current climate. By 2022, the company will handle 5.6 percent of the global Bitcoin network, with a gross profit of $86.5 million from mining 55 to 60 Bitcoins a day.

Maratha Mining (Mara) is a Bitcoin mining company and in April the company mined 162.1 bitcoins compared to 157 in the entire fourth quarter of 2020. Its production level is equivalent to $9.2 million in revenue , which is already more than double the 4.3 million dollars in 2020. If fully deployed by 2022, Mara’s projected capacity would constitute about 5.6% of the world’s bitcoin network. Marathon will acquire market share at the expense of elderly miners, who may be forced to go offline or lose their professional lives.

Marathon’s fleet of ASIC, ‘S-19 Pro’ miners, will operate with state-of-the-art technology. In 2020, the company pioneered large purchase orders from Bitmain. The Marathon is expected to hit over $200 million this year, with a run rate of $530 million in December, with $55,000 throughout the year. As of February 2022, the company is expected to have a hash rate capacity of 6.3 EH/s, which we estimate can extract 804 BTC per month, based on a forecast of 220 EH/day from our mining network from independent bitcoin. Bitcoin price is the most important information for investors who are positive enough to see a situation where the price is rising to $100,000, $200,000 or more.

Marathon Digital Mara is forecast to make $834.4 million in revenue this year, with a market valuation of $3.0 billion. The company’s forecast involves a future selling price of 14.2x for 2021 and 3.6x for 2022. If inventory looks cheap on these measurements, it just reflects the miners’ lack of understanding of Bitcoin miners’ prices and how to assess their potential of revenue. Marathon Digital (Mara) has several high-growth markets and is one of the most interesting companies in the market. Analysts rate the stock with a target price of $50 at the end of the year, which is 6x the 2022 revenue estimate. A scenario where the price of Bitcoin rises above $100,000 would open the door to further boost higher in the stock price.

Tags: BitcoinBitcoin miningMARAMARA StockMarathon Digital HoldingsNASDAQ: MARATech Stock
Elaine Mendonça

Elaine Mendonça

My focus is on uncovering early-stage ideas with the potential to have a lasting impact. My educational background includes a bachelor's degree in finance, an MBA, and two tests completed - the CFA and CMT. Over the last nine years, I have managed my investment portfolio using fundamental analysis and value investing, emphasizing long-term time horizons.

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