Friday witnessed a return of the buying frenzy after a poor Jobs report that reduced rates. This was wonderful for the mood, but bear in mind that in specific sectors, a recession indicates poor intermediate results. A significant amount of it has already been viewed, especially in retail.
Breaking into the Jobs data reveals more uncertainty than the little drop; what matters here is that the Fed “tame” its tone and that the “Fed” admits the actual deterioration with adjustments made.
We’ll hear more from Fed Chairman Powell this week, but the start of the week will be heavily affected by whether or not the conflict expands.
After hours of deciphering it, I settled on Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s muddled acceptance of some cross-border fighting in today’s first public speech since the beginning of the Middle East crisis, declaring that they “entered the battle.”
He warned that things may worsen when he said, “We will not be limited to this.” He did not, however, indicate that they would fight to the death. So far, Hezbollah has taken cautious steps to show its support for Hamas (and maybe anything Iran dictates), avoiding a full-fledged battle that would be terrible for both Israel and Lebanon. It may already be more expansive, but participation is, in my judgment, lower. I’m still concerned about East Coast cruise missile launches.
The Jews have avoided the destiny that has befallen them in the past by recognizing what it means to be powerless and passive (just Google the ‘Samson Option,’ or read my little comment on it later in this Daily). There is almost “no risk” that the current state of affairs will become another “Masada” (though Hezbollah and Iran are aware of what Israel has in terms of ICBMs, German submarines, F-35s, and F-22s, among other things); thus, Israel has a complex air-land-sea triad that is not as strong as the US’s but still adequate.)
I’m concerned after hearing some foreign media express “relief” that Hezbollah isn’t striking. Because Israel is mobilized and our Navy is accessible, it is impossible to conduct a surprise strike, in my view; hence, we should be on the lookout for missile assaults at any time of day, particularly this weekend, unless Iran objects. Any missile launched (as it was early Saturday from Gaza toward Eilat), it is assumed (and thanks to a member with extensive knowledge of Israel’s and the world’s advanced technologies), would be immediately detected by the “world’s largest and highest (1300′ towers) radar facility” (near Dimona), which is owned and operated by…the United States…presumably the US ‘Space Force.’ You may be wondering why there is ambiguity when the media refers to a US-Israeli base.
Stocks behaved as predicted, according to the market X-ray: This was still irritating, but it may have been owing to my dissatisfaction with what was going on in the world and even in our own culture. It is almost challenging to analyze markets in isolation without empathy, compassion, and a feeling of anger about the situation of the world.
We got our turnaround, a rate freeze, and a squeeze on the shorts. So, although it may not seem so, and there is still danger ahead, it was a good week overall. In some respects, the perception that November is “better” comes true, but there are still obstacles.
Concerning the “war,” more Americans and Palestinians have fled to Egypt; Israel appears to be open to a ceasefire “if” all hostages are released; and if you think my assessment of Iran’s knowledge of Israel’s ability to impair its Islamic movement (or proxies) seriously is incorrect, read up on the relevant issues. Furthermore, say the US Army is already in Sinai defending “our” radars.
(Israel gets alerts ‘if’ a missile is on its way, as it did this morning from Gaza and last week from Yemen. Bob Gates, the defense secretary at the time, authorized the cunning arrangement to deploy there. Bob was from Wichita, where I attended high school, but he was not my source for this story. This American-owned and managed facility monitors Russian missile launches and has helped Ukraine get early alerts of Russian hypersonic missile launches or aircraft movements. It is also linked to the worldwide system and gets notifications when Iran fires missiles, instantly transmitted to NORAD in Colorado.
I’m glad we believed the market was prepared to recover from an oversold general market and a pullback from absurd price levels in certain mega-caps. More than a week ago, I called it the “nadir of a trough,” and I was correct. The condition was that the “war does not expand.” Although the markets see it as more of a halt, I think it has occurred. In my perspective, Israel is forcibly enclosing Gaza City and cutting it off from the south. Furthermore, the IDF often avoided attacking places below the area of interdiction, which is why they recommended all people go south. On Saturday, the whole Gaza ‘north’ is virtually a ‘free-fire’ zone.
When one observes the sorrowful expressions of the Israeli forces who sacrificed their lives, it’s tough to remain indifferent regarding the retaliations. I recall (during the 1973 war, I believe) Tel Aviv withholding information on a few hundred fatalities that were not first made public. This is what I’m afraid about. I also realize that the longer Israel’s reserves stay active, the more severely their economy suffers, yet part of the pressure from Washington is for them not to “go rapidly.”
Another thing: for the first time in history, a people has been threatened with extinction many times, while the rest of the world either overlooks Hamas’s savagery, supports the victims, or both. The hostile Islamic community must recognize that they will never succeed and will be decimated if they attempt to. That is the “Samson Option,” which was almost deployed on a mountain in 1973, but there was no protest because the IDF regained control of the hill before Egyptian soldiers could take control of Sinai.
It may also explain why neither President Nixon nor President Biden hesitated to give Israel the necessary resources. Furthermore, in light of the massacres at the Music Festival and the kibbutzim, Israel has justified its fury. This is not intended to belittle Palestinian suffering; instead, Israel is the only one who can set them free by destroying Hamas and preventing dictatorships.
There seems to be a decrease in commercial activity in the interval, although distinguishing between domestic and international transit is complicated. FedEx pilot teams are being told they are overstaffed because “air cargo demand is down,” despite a purported statewide pilot shortage.
FedEx pilots are often only compensated for modest flying hours, and they expect this to continue “for the foreseeable future.” This is becoming a concern for the whole company and is related to consumer purchases and exports.
Nonetheless, FedEx went further, instructing its pilots to seek positions with American Airlines via one of its subsidiary airlines. For now, America may not need more capacity; JetBlue indeed does not, and Delta has other issues.
Furthermore, it is “shoulder season,” when I expected a drop in airline business, even though “forward bookings” for summer travel had been good before the conflict and some rethinking. After Israel wins this fight, United, America, and Delta will have a high demand for Israeli travel. Only “El AL” has electronic protection against missile jamming on its 777s and, I believe, A330s, but not on its top-of-the-fleet Boeing 787s. El Al and even Etihad are flying passengers ofromIsrael to Athens or Doha, where they can connect to planes anywhere. Few passengers took advantage of Australia’s offer to travel on its military cargo planes, preferring instead to take frequent, pleasant commercial flights. Ryan Air, Lufthansa, and even Air New Zealand have all arrived or are currently flying; American carriers claim “insurance” as a reason for their operations. Of course, Sec’y. Blinken’s Boeing 757 is now the sole one at Ben Gurion Airport.
In summary, the market relieved pressure on several depressed sectors, while mega-caps performed inconsistently. Apple’s disappointing numbers were predicted, yet they still affected the market. Even EV-related shares and semiconductors recovered, but there is still little reason to be optimistic, especially in the retail or automotive sectors. Although oil prices remain defensive, more confrontation, such as reimposing sanctions on Iran, would soon drive up oil prices and necessitate a “reassessment” of the S&P.
That was fascinating because when you say the US Navy was targeted, the tension rises. Given a military conflict with Iran, which they are attempting to avoid by having proxies attack US installations, and our ship (USS Carney), Sec’y Austin said that “was” the goal, despite media reports that Israel was. Biden also wants to keep oil costs from increasing for the benefit of American consumers, who are under more stress than statistics reflect. Intricate.
More advantages are entirely contingent on completing this weekend. If you were a nibbler during the ‘trough’ a week ago, I wouldn’t chase you down; good for you, but don’t get too enthusiastic. There is still work to be done, and geopolitical risk remains. While Russia is withdrawing from nuclear treaties, a summit with China on nuclear weapons rules might be a good move. However, we’ll have to wait and see whether it happens. Naturally, we hope and pray that Russia is not behaving in this manner shortly before “using” an atomic bomb.