Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) shares tumbled 16.1% to $938.97 as of September 4, 2026, a sharp decline from the prior close of $1,118.93. BestStocks flagged the session as a major change for FICO. Below, we break down what changed for FICO, why it matters for investors, how the stock reacted, and the catalysts on the calendar.
What happened
FICO fell 16.1% to $938.97
FICO fell 15.13% to $949.67 following Federal Housing Finance Agency directives advancing rival credit-scoring models like VantageScore at government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, threatening FICO's historical mortgage-scoring dominance; the move was compounded by bearish analyst commentary and a broader risk-off environment pressuring high-multiple software names. Volume reached 803,272 shares (7.59x normal for this time of session), signaling elevated institutional activity. FHFA's formal implementation timeline and any statements from Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac on VantageScore adoption; FICO's earnings call on November 4, 2026 (consensus EPS $11.08) for management guidance on competitive pressures and mortgage revenue impact.
This summary describes the catalyst and move as first detected on Sep 4, 2026, 12:03 PM EDT; the stock has continued trading since, so the current price and percentage move (shown above) may be larger or smaller than the figures here.
What it means for Fair Isaac Corporation investors
For Fair Isaac Corporation investors, the recent signals add up to a strong bearish shift. On the constructive side: Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) moved +2.94% from $1205.79 to $1241.22 on 2026-07-16; Positive price momentum. Weighing against that: Material negative event; Sharp 16.1% decline — elevated risk. Wall Street's consensus price target sits at $1,539.33, implying +63.9% upside from $938.97. Over the past 90 days analysts logged 0 upgrades and 1 downgrade. BestStocks rates the overall signal quality medium (74/100). With earnings roughly 61 days out, the next report is the most likely near-term test of the move.
FICO price reaction
FICO last traded at $938.97, down $179.96 (-16.08%) from the previous close of $1,118.93. The session traded on 2.8× average volume (very high), so the move carried above-average conviction. Over the past month the stock has ranged between $938.97 and $1,172.67, and it currently sits about 0% of the way up that band.
Bullish and bearish analyst opinions on Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
▼Latest catalyst·strengthens the bear case
The latest catalyst — a materially negative development — it strengthens the bear case.
The consensus analyst price target on Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is $1,539.33, 63.9% above the recent $938.97. Over the past 90 days analysts logged 0 upgrades, 8 maintains, and 1 downgrade. Here is how the bullish and bearish cases on FICO line up.
▲ The bullish case
+Wall Street's consensus price target of $1,539.33 implies +63.9% upside from $938.97.
+The Street's most bullish target is $1,750.00 (+86.4%).
+Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) moved +2.94% from $1205.79 to $1241.22 on 2026-07-16.
+Positive price momentum.
▼ The bearish case
−1 analyst downgrade in the past 90 days, most recently Wolfe Research to Peer Perform (2026-08-03).
−Material negative event.
−Sharp 16.1% decline — elevated risk.
−High volume 2.8x on decline — distribution signal.
−Fair Isaac Corporation moved -5.40% intraday from $1091.55 to $1032.62.
Bull vs bear balanceStrong Bearish Shift
BearishNeutralBullish
Weighing both sides, BestStocks' composite read of recent signals is strongly bearish, as the bull-versus-bear meter above shows. This is an educational summary of the bull and bear case, not investment advice.
Analyst price targets and ratings are FMP consensus figures as of Sep 4, 2026; other aggregators may differ. High and low targets show the range of estimates, not forecasts.
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) moved -2.84% from $1135.93 to $1103.68 on 2026-09-01. We checked news, earnings announcements, analyst updates, SEC filings, and corporate actions — no company-specific catalyst was found. Volume was modestly elevated at 1.4x the 5-day average.
Material / Earnings2026-08-19+7.7%
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) moved +6.26% from $1093.12 to $1161.59 on 2026-08-19. We checked news, earnings announcements, analyst updates, SEC filings, and corporate actions — no company-specific catalyst was found. Volume was near its 5-day average at 1.2x.
Material / Earnings2026-08-13+6.4%
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) moved +3.80% from $1,070.00 to $1,110.70 on August 13, 2026. We checked news, earnings announcements, analyst updates, SEC filings, and corporate actions — no company-specific catalyst was found. The move occurred on volume near its 5-day average.
Fair Isaac Corporation moved -5.40% intraday from $1091.55 to $1032.62. FICO Joins Marsai Martin's Foundation and Seeds of Fortune Inc. to Expand National Financial Empowerment Initiative for Families and College Students: Seeds of Fortune Inc. Partners with FICO to Launch FICO Financial Empowerment Fellowship NEW YORK, Aug. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Seeds of Fortune Inc. and Marsai's Way Foundation are deepening their partnership to advance [2026-08-05]
Material / Earnings2026-08-05+4.3%
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) moved +3.37% from $1,056.00 to $1,091.55 on 2026-08-05. We checked news, earnings announcements, analyst updates, SEC filings, and corporate actions — no company-specific catalyst was found. The move occurred on light trading volume (45% of the 5-day average).
Material / Earnings2026-08-03-6.9%
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) moved -5.95% from $1,111.60 to $1,045.46 on August 3, 2026. We checked news, earnings announcements, analyst updates, SEC filings, and corporate actions — no company-specific catalyst was found. The move appears technical: FICO reached a new 30-day low while volume remained near its 5-day average.
Fair Isaac Corporation reported third-quarter revenue of $674.2 million, missing analyst consensus of $679.2 million, and lowered full-year guidance to $2.53 billion in revenue and $42.43 adjusted EPS—both below expectations of $2.56 billion and $43.09 EPS (Barron's, Yahoo Finance). FICO fell 2.40% to $1112.17 on elevated volume of 532,773 shares (3.48x normal for this time of day), as investors reassessed the stock's premium valuation amid softer growth in core scoring and mortgage segments.
Risk2026-07-30-17.0%
Fair Isaac Corporation filed a material event (8-K) and earnings report today, triggering a sharp 16.95% intraday decline to $1140.39. Volume reached 503,446 shares, 4.35x the time-adjusted average, reflecting elevated selling pressure. The concrete content of the 8-K filing was not disclosed in available sources, but the combination of same-day filings and magnitude of the selloff suggests a material adverse announcement or guidance revision.
In-depth FICO event analyses
Permanent, dated analyses of FICO's most significant sessions.
FICO tumbled 16.1% to $938.97. The move coincided with the context summarized above, though no single company-specific catalyst was independently confirmed.
How much did FICO stock fall?
FICO lost 16.08% ($179.96) versus the prior close of $1,118.93, last trading at $938.97 on 2.8× average volume.
When is Fair Isaac Corporation's next earnings date?
FICO's next earnings report is estimated for 2026-11-04 — about 61 days away.
What is the analyst price target for FICO?
The consensus analyst price target for FICO is $1,539.33, about 63.9% above the current $938.97. Over the past 90 days, analysts recorded 0 upgrades, 8 maintains, and 1 downgrade.
How BestStocks tracks FICO
This page is generated automatically by BestStocks' change-detection system after its price and volume cleared FICO-specific materiality thresholds, triggering an evidence check. It draws on 20 tracked change events for FICO, cross-checked against the data sources listed below. Price, volume, and market-capitalization figures are the live intraday quote as of September 4, 2026 and refresh as new information is detected; for companies with multiple share classes, market-cap figures can differ by data source. Analyst price targets and ratings are FMP consensus. This is an educational summary of what changed and why — not personalized investment advice.
