SpaceX Stock Near IPO Price: SPCX's 35% Post-IPO Drop Explained

Summary

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) priced its IPO at $135 per share ahead of its June 12, 2026 trading debut — the largest stock-market debut ever. The base deal raised about $75 billion, and after the underwriters fully exercised their over-allotment option, gross proceeds reached about $85.7 billion [1][5]. The stock opened for trading at $150 [1]. Three sessions later it hit an intraday record of $225.64, then gave nearly all of it back, touching $147.11 on June 23 and briefly pulling the market cap below $2 trillion [2][3].

As of the July 1, 2026 close, SPCX traded at $157.54 — about 30% below its $225.64 intraday peak [3]. (The widely-cited $170.86 figure was the June 30 close, used as the prior-close reference, not the July 1 closing price.)

One detail worth stating plainly, because it keeps getting blurred in coverage: SPCX never traded below its $135 IPO price. What broke was the $150 opening trade — a different line, and the one most retail buyers actually paid [2]. The June 23 low sat about 9% above the IPO price before the bounce.

What changed

The reversal took five trading sessions and had no earnings report behind it. SpaceX won't publish its first quarter as a public company until August 6 [3]. The selling clustered around a handful of concrete worries instead.

The biggest was debt. Days after raising $75 billion in the offering, the company announced a $25 billion bond issuance, and that extra leverage on top of a stretched valuation unsettled buyers [4]. The stock fell 16% on Monday, June 22 alone — a roughly $400 billion single-day loss of market value — after dropping 3.6% and 5% in the two prior sessions [2].

Valuation did the rest of the work. At about $2.25 trillion, SpaceX carries trailing EPS of −$2.94; the launch business and Starlink generate cash, but the consolidated company still loses money, largely on the xAI side [3]. Two structural features amplified the swings. Retail participation was unusually high — reports before the deal put it as high as ~30%, while later reporting pointed to a final allocation near 20%, versus closer to 10% in a typical IPO — and retail books built on enthusiasm tend to sell faster than institutional ones when momentum turns [5]. At least 25 SPCX-linked ETFs were registered by the first day of trading, more than half of them leveraged or inverse products that mechanically magnify daily moves [1]. Insider lockups expiring in the coming months added a further overhang [4].

Why it matters

The historical comparisons deserve attention precisely because they diverge. Facebook priced at $38 in May 2012, barely held that line on day one, and fell more than 50% within months. The stock bottomed near $17.55 that September — about 54% below the IPO price, or roughly 58% below the first-day open — as the first insider lockup released 271 million shares, and it needed about 14 months to reclaim its IPO price [6][7]. It then became one of the best-performing large caps of the decade. Coinbase went public in 2021 by direct listing at the peak of crypto enthusiasm — a $250 reference price and an opening trade of $381 — and traded near $62 two years later, about 84% below that opening print, before recovering in the next cycle [8].

Rivian is the counterexample. It fell below its $78 IPO price within two months of its heavily hyped November 2021 debut and, as of mid-2026, still sits about 78% below the $78 IPO price — and roughly 88% below its first-day high [9].

What separates the recoveries from the casualties isn't visible on any chart. It's the business underneath. Facebook was profitable and adding users at record pace while its stock was being dumped. Rivian was burning billions with production still ramping. SpaceX sits between those poles: launch is dominant, Starlink produces recurring revenue, and management says the core operation has been cash-flow positive for years [1] — but xAI loses money, consolidated earnings are negative, and the balance sheet just absorbed $25 billion of new bonds. Which camp SPCX belongs to will be decided by its filings, starting in August, not by June's tape.

What to watch

Four dates and one number. July 7: SPCX joins the Nasdaq-100 after an unusually fast-tracked inclusion, which obliges index funds to buy [3]. August 6: the first earnings report, and the first segment-level look at launch, Starlink, and xAI as a public company [3]. Late 2026: insider lockups, typically 90 to 180 days after listing, begin to expire [10] — the event that set the durable low in the Facebook case [7]. Ongoing: how the bond market absorbs the $25 billion issuance, since credit pricing is a cleaner read on institutional confidence than the equity tape.

The number: sell-side price targets currently run from $62 to $310 [3]. A spread that wide means the market has not agreed on what kind of company this is. Until it narrows, volatility like June's is the base case, not the exception.

Is SpaceX stock below its IPO price?

No. SPCX has stayed above its $135 IPO price throughout the selloff. What it dropped below was the $150 first-day opening trade — the price most retail buyers actually paid. At the June 23 low of $147.11 the stock was still about 9% above the IPO price, and as of the July 1 close ($157.54) it sits roughly 17% above it [2][3].

Why did SpaceX stock fall after the IPO?

No single catalyst — a cluster of them, and none was an earnings miss (the first report isn't due until August 6):

• Stretched valuation. A ~$2.25 trillion market cap against negative trailing EPS (−$2.94) left little margin for disappointment [3].
• Debt issuance. A $25 billion bond sale days after the raise piled leverage onto that valuation [4].
• High retail allocation. Reported as high as ~30% before the deal and near 20% afterward — retail holders tend to sell faster when momentum turns [5].
• ETF leverage. More than 25 SPCX-linked ETFs, over half leveraged or inverse, mechanically magnified daily swings [1].
• Lockup overhang. Insider lockups begin expiring later in 2026 [4][10].
• Negative consolidated earnings. Launch and Starlink generate cash, but xAI losses pull the consolidated company into the red [3].

SpaceX stock vs Facebook, Coinbase and Rivian after IPO

The comparison is the whole point: hyped debuts almost always sell off, but the outcomes split on the business underneath, not the size of the drop. Each drawdown below is stated against its baseline — IPO price versus opening or reference trade — because that distinction is where most coverage goes wrong.

Figures per company filings and the reporting cited above; approximate where marked (~). Drawdown baselines are stated explicitly because IPO price, opening trade and reference price are different lines.

What could move SPCX stock next?

• Nasdaq-100 inclusion (July 7). A fast-tracked entry that forces index-fund buying [3].
• First earnings (August 6). The first segment-level view of launch, Starlink and xAI [3].
• Lockup expirations (late 2026). The trigger that set Facebook's durable low [7][10].
• Bond-market reaction. How the $25 billion issuance is absorbed reads institutional confidence more cleanly than the equity tape.
• Analyst target revisions. A $62–$310 spread today; convergence would signal a consensus forming [3].