The statistics have been difficult to anticipate for a variety of reasons. The first is China’s Covid-19 lockdowns, which are causing output unpredictability, and the second is Wall Street.
In the final hours of June, it seems that many experts are lowering their delivery estimates every day. It’s tough to believe the consensus figure since not all analysts are lowering numbers.
TSLA stock analyst, Itay Michaeli lowered his second-quarter Tesla vehicle delivery forecast to 258,500 vehicles late on Tuesday. His report did not mention his previous estimate.
Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank and Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho was the other analysts to lower their estimates for the company on Tuesday and Monday, respectively. First-quarter deliveries were revised down to 245,000 automobiles, while Rakesh’s projection was reduced to 232,000 from 296,000.
Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas and Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy both cut their projections for the company.
The extent and frequency of the estimated reductions should not come as a shock. Parts shortages have plagued the Chinese car sector since late March as authorities work to manage an uptick in Covid-19 infections. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been slowed to a crawl, as has the rest of the industry.
Tesla delivered a record 310,000 vehicles in the first three months of 2022, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of record deliveries for the company.
For most of the second quarter, Wall Street was certain that the stock market would break its previous high. When Covid-19 first emerged, it was estimated that 350,000 units would be produced over time.
However, Bloomberg’s estimate is still around 280,000 units, while FactSet is reporting 265,000 units as the consensus. Even yet, there are still some estimates that put the number of vehicles at 344,000.
Rosner’s latest estimate puts the number at 240,000. More than a quarter of a million cars from Tesla’s factories in Fremont and China, as well as a few from its upcoming operations in Texas and Germany, might make up that total. Late in the first quarter, the German factory was formally inaugurated. Opening day was April 1st in Austin, Texas.
It’s hard to tell whether a close to 240,000-unit report is positive or bad for the stock. When it comes to Tesla stock, a lot is going on, and the delivery projections are only one of them.
Inflation and increasing interest rates have weighed on Tesla’s stock price, as has Elon Musk’s bid for Twitter TWTR –1.02% (TWTR). Since Musk’s original owner in the social networking business was revealed, Tesla stock is down nearly 39%, which is worse than the 23% decrease for the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP –2.98 percent during the same period.
The stock of Tesla is more volatile on Twitter than the market as a whole, even though the company’s first-quarter results were spectacular. Shareholders received $3.22 in profits per share, which was $1 more than expected by the market.
Tesla’s stock rose by more than 3% after the company’s financial results were announced. However, since that moment, it has lost nearly 31%, which is more than twice the 15% decrease in the Nasdaq index.
Tesla’s stock usually does well when shipments are strong. In seven of the last ten quarters, when Tesla topped analyst estimates, shares have beaten the market from the time deliveries are announced until quarterly results are revealed.
Tesla fulfilled estimates for the first quarter of 2022, but that wasn’t good enough. Between the delivery report and results, the stock dropped by nearly 10%. Over the same period, the S&P 500SPX –2.01 percent fell approximately 2%.
Tesla’s stock is down 35% for the quarter and 34% for the year as of today’s delivery numbers. Tesla stock may have already reflected any negative news, but it’s never easy to know with Tesla shares.
Tesla’s deliveries were decreased by Itay Michaeli, an analyst at Citigroup, on Tuesday night. His decision was not made on Wednesday as previously reported.